The deadline for most American taxpayers to file their tax returns is April 15. Most of them are keeping track of the status of their tax refunds. Despite staff cuts at the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and rumours of a possible government shutdown, operations remained stable until mid-March.
Official data show that as of March 7, the IRS had processed 43.6 million refunds totalling $145,063 million. This represents a 7.2% increase over the previous year, with an additional $3,324 million, or 5.7% more.
Are delays expected in tax refunds?
However, tax professionals warn that pressure on the IRS may increase in the coming weeks. According to Tom O’Saben, president of the National Association of Tax Professionals, “I hope that won’t be the case as volume increases here in the last 30 days of the season.”
So far, no widespread delays in returns have been reported, as long as they are filed electronically and correctly. However, the 2.1% decrease in total returns processed and the 44% decrease in visits to IRS.gov raise concerns about efficiency in the final stages of the season.
DOGE cuts at the IRS: refunds could be affected
The uncertainty is exacerbated by IRS employee layoffs in late February and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)‘s preliminary plans to terminate leases at dozens of local offices.
Although some closures were reversed, experts such as Jim Simpson, an accountant in Arizona, warn of operational risks: “This will cause more chaos […].” “It should be done surgically, not with a chainsaw.”
According to an anonymous source cited by the Associated Press, DOGE’s plans to cancel leases at taxpayer assistance centres were incorrect and were suspended. However, the department’s updated list still includes several locations marked for closure, which has caused confusion among officials and citizens.
Martin Smith, a tax specialist we consult, recommends electronic filing as the preferred method. “If you send a paper return, someone from the IRS has to be there to open the envelope […].”
We saw in the pandemic that this is not done until too late.” The IRS has reiterated that in the event of a government shutdown, it will have enough personnel to run critical operations for at least five days.
Despite the challenges, the agency has avoided significant delays, even after the initial round of layoffs. The $135.281 million in refunds processed in 2024 differs from the $145.063 million issued this year, indicating an increase in individual amounts. However, experts caution that these figures may be revised as late returns are processed.
One notable trend is a reduction in early repayments, which typically account for one-third of the annual total. This variation could be influenced by factors such as regulatory changes, increased form complexity, or institutional distrust, though the IRS has not commented.
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