Late afternoon and this evening continue to see a marked increase in the likelihood of damaging winds from thunderstorms.
The southeast third of Lower Michigan is now at a high risk of experiencing short, destructive high wind gusts from an anticipated line of severe thunderstorms, according to the Storm Prediction Center’s early afternoon update.
The Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) early afternoon update is shown just below. There is now a minimum of a 45 percent chance of scattered wind gusts exceeding 60 mph in the magenta-colored region that stretches from Kalamazoo to Jackson to the vicinity of Lansing to Ann Arbor and the Detroit area.
SPC did not place the black hatched area, indicating that they do not anticipate high-end gusts of 75 mph or more. Although they would be isolated, these stronger gusts could definitely occur. Additionally, the likelihood of severe wind gusts during thunderstorms has increased for Grand Rapids, Lansing, Flint, and Saginaw.
The likelihood of a tornado hasn’t changed much since the morning. The severe thunderstorms still have the potential to produce one or two isolated tornadoes. In fact, the southern row of counties in southwest Lower Michigan is currently under a tornado watch.
The situation is clearly depicted by the most recent high-resolution severe weather forecasting model.
Between 4 and 5 p.m., severe storms will form in the extreme southwest corner of Lower Michigan. These storms will then develop into a series of t-storms that have the potential to produce damaging winds that could affect a large area.
The weather scenario is simple to understand. Late this afternoon and evening, strong, severe thunderstorms are predicted to rumble over the southern portion of Michigan.
