The weather in February looks fascinating in Michigan

By Joseph

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The weather in February looks fascinating in Michigan

The extended weather data continues to show a different weather pattern in February than what we experienced in January. NOAA’s long-range weather forecasters predict wild weather in Michigan in February.

An upper-air pattern change appears to be on its way by the end of the month. Obviously, we are currently experiencing an upper-air flow from the north. We do have air that has moved here from the Arctic region.

Watch the upper-air flow forecast from now until the beginning of February. The forecast animation depicts a colder-than-normal upper-air pattern in blue, green, and purple.

A warmer, but not necessarily warmer-than-normal, upper-air pattern appears as orange. Also, observe the transition from a northern to a much more westerly flow. The biggest change doesn’t happen until the first few days of February.

February weather

Air flow forecast at 15,000 feet up from January 21 to February 4, 2025NOAA

Here’s a still frame of the same forecast from February 4. A westerly flow is clearly visible.

February forecast

Forecast at 15,000 feet up on February 4, 2025. This is the steering flow of storm systems.

This forecast also shows a strong jetstream cutting across the United States, with Michigan remaining on the wintry side. This particular upper-air configuration would bring additional moisture to Michigan.

This flow would also bring numerous storm systems across the country, possibly spaced out every three to five days.

NOAA’s long-range forecasts for the start and end of February predict warmer temperatures than the current Arctic plunge. The precipitation forecast, which places Michigan in the target zone for more moisture than normal, is the most intriguing aspect of the long-range forecast.

NOAA supports the idea of wetter weather in the first two weeks of February. Of course, at this time of year, wet weather is more likely to take the form of snow than rain. We can certainly have a wintry mix of different types of precipitation.

The consistent Arctic air is expected to subside to around normal temperatures. In early February, normal temperatures range from the 20s to the 30s, with lows in the teens and 20s.

Take a look at NOAA’s bold and confident forecast for February precipitation. They predict above-average precipitation for Michigan as a whole. They specifically target Lower Michigan for a higher likelihood of active precipitation.

According to NOAA, storm systems are moving from the lower Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes. This is a messy storm track for Michigan.

NOAA appears to predict that February temperatures will be close to normal. This means that while we may see a few days in the 40s this month, most afternoons will be in the 30s.

In my experience, if we have normal temperatures and above-average precipitation in February, we can expect a messy, wintry month.

We could have several statewide winter weather systems that bring significant moisture to our state. Significant moisture in February indicates that a storm will produce heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, as well as possibly rain.

This will be much-needed moisture, as the majority of the state is still experiencing drought conditions.

It also means we’ll be watching a lot of weather together, as well as encountering some difficult driving conditions on occasion.

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